Americans have a rather extraordinary privilege: the ability to take out a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. The only other country offering a comparable product is Denmark, a very different economy on a very different scale.

One reason we enjoy this particular largesse is that the world runs on dollars, meaning Americans rarely have to worry about exchange rates when our government goes shopping. This arrangement was more or less cemented at Bretton Woods in 1944. It is absolutely true that the great British economist John Maynard Keynes, one of the principal architects of the Bretton Woods agreement, did not envision a single nation's currency becoming the world's dominant reserve currency. But, in what may be the earliest known example of a document search-and-replace, the American delegation essentially swapped the placeholder currency for the U.S. dollar. And here we are. There are, of course, several other economic factors involved, but why complicate a perfectly good story?

The less amusing part is that a 30-year mortgage at roughly 7% feels considerably more painful today than it did when I bought my first home 30 years ago (my interest rate was 7.75% and I thought I was getting a great deal!). Housing prices have appreciated dramatically over the decades, so the same interest rate applied to a much larger loan creates an entirely different monthly payment.

Naturally, the next question is: Surely this is temporary. Rates will come back down.

Maybe, most likely yes. But I wouldn't build a real estate strategy around waiting for the return of the mythical 3% mortgage.

Mortgage rates are influenced heavily by the bond market, particularly the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury. And the United States needs to sell a great many Treasury securities to finance all the things we have become rather fond of, aircraft carriers, Social Security, tax cuts and the occasional trillion-dollar idea.

Foreign investors are important buyers of Treasuries, and our relationship with some of those buyers has become, shall we say, complicated. Add inflation, government borrowing and a geopolitical landscape that seems determined to provide us with fresh plot twists every Tuesday, and predicting precisely where rates will land becomes a bit like predicting a marriage based on the wedding menu. There are simply too many variables, and probably some Chardonnay required.

So, could mortgage rates ease over the next couple of years? Absolutely. They could. We may see some relief in 2027.  Anyone who tells you with absolute certainty where mortgage rates will be two years from now is either remarkably gifted or selling something.

Here's the more encouraging part: you don't actually need to predict the future to make a good real estate decision.

The 3% mortgage was wonderful. Truly. But it was also an extraordinary period created by extraordinary circumstances. We shouldn't necessarily view today's rates as a temporary punishment until the good old days return. A mortgage at 6% or 7% may simply be part of the landscape for a while and buyers and sellers can still make smart decisions within that landscape. Don't forget that the average mortgage interest rate for the last 50 years is 7.7%

Real estate has always been a long game. People move because they get married, have children, become empty nesters, change jobs, want more space, want less space, want a different neighborhood, or simply wake up one morning and decide they would really rather have a library than a formal dining room.

Life, inconveniently, refuses to wait for the Federal Reserve.

So while I wouldn't suggest anyone ignore interest rates, I also wouldn't suggest putting your life on hold waiting for the perfect combination of mortgage rates, home prices, inventory and economic conditions. That combination is about as elusive as $2.50 eggs.

This isn't financial advice. It's simply my jaundiced-but-occasionally-optimistic view of the world from where I sit today.

The goal isn't to perfectly time the market. It's to make the right move for your life, and understand the market well enough to do it intelligently.